From Radio World Online: "It's an exciting time for radio, with lots of activity in many different directions. The celebrated cover story of a recent edition of Wired magazine cited 'The End of Radio (As We Know It),' presenting numerous new formats as potential successors.

"As in other transitions, there seems to be two schools of thought to radio's evolution: incremental and disruptive. The transition to HD Radio -- and for the most part, to satellite radio as well -- seem to represent the incremental approach, while the disruptive element includes all of the truly new delivery forms, generally characterized of late under the 'podcasting' label, but extending beyond this, especially as time goes on.

"What is often lost in these binary comparisons is the point that both models can and often do coexist in such evolutions. Eventually one form may dominate, but this may take a long time, particularly when the installed legacy base is as substantial as AM/FM radio's. The most likely scenario in the near- to mid-term, therefore, is a straddling of the fence by audiences, so broadcasters need to keep a foot in both camps...

"On the legacy side, broadcasters face the IBOC transition in the United States, and the DAB transition elsewhere...

"Yet a point often lost when evaluating these options is that if such formats are intended as legacy extenders, just how much extension can they provide?.. Any new format must be examined not just for what it can do today, but how it will fare over the long term...

"Then there's the other side of the equation, where wholly new forms of content distribution are emerging, as we've discussed in several recent columns. The good news here is that broadcasters don't have to develop and maintain the delivery pipelines, but the bad news is that they don't control those pipes, either.

"This can be a workable tradeoff, however, especially given broadcasters' continued retention of their exclusive rights to scarce legacy channels all the while. Broadcasters may not own and operate the new media delivery systems, but they can pretty well manage their audiences' transition to it via careful cross-promotional and service-package differentiation efforts.

"It's important to grasp how formidable this onslaught of new offerings vying for listeners' attention may be. What we've already seen -- from iTunes to podcasting -- is likely just the tip of the iceberg, with a wide range of brand-new offerings taking shape just beyond the public horizon at present. These next-gen service launches will likely proliferate with numbing frequency over the next year or so...

"Perhaps most interesting to contemplate today is the form that some new end-user devices will take. There is much discussion at present on the 'converged receiver,' most likely a wireless phone + digital radio. This is a rich target that broadcasters could address from both service directions. More on such a world next time."

Read this entire Radio World Online story here